The .Plan

Bruce Dohrenwend and colleagues just published a study in Science that downward-revises the previously oft-cited number of “30% of Vietnam vets develop PTSD”:

Skeptics have argued that these results are inflated by recall bias and other flaws. We used military records to construct a new exposure measure and to cross-check exposure reports in diagnoses of 260 NVVRS veterans. We found little evidence of falsification, an even stronger dose-response relationship, and psychological costs that were lower than previously estimated but still substantial. According to our fully adjusted PTSD rates, 18.7% of the veterans had developed war-related PTSD during their lifetimes and 9.1% were currently suffering from PTSD 11 to 12 years after the war; current PTSD was typically associated with moderate impairment.
–Bruce Dohrenwend et al, “The Psychological Risks of Vietnam for U.S. Veterans: A Revisit with New Data and Methods”, Science, August 18, 2006

The response from the vet lobby is predictable:

Bobby Muller, president of Vietnam Veterans for America in Washington, who was paralyzed from the chest down after taking a bullet in Vietnam, said that focusing only on the reduced numbers in the new study threatened to undermine financing for veterans’ services and appreciation for the seriousness of combat-related disorders.

“The fact is,” Mr. Muller said, “that veterans suffering mental health problems have been under assault, the diagnosis has been continuously attacked in terms of its legitimacy, funding has not been ramped up to handle these problems for vets returning from Iraq, and now people will see this study and say, ‘Oh look, the problem is not as bad as we thought it was.’ ” He added, “This is absolutely the last thing we need.”
–Benedict Carey, “Less Post-Traumatic Stress Seen in Vietnam Vets”, New York Times, August 18, 2006

And all of this, of course, is more than a little revealing about the absurdities embedded in the research enterprise and the policymaking enterprise.

MY LORD GOD, I have no idea where I am going. I do not see the road ahead of me. I cannot know for certain where it will end. Nor do I really know myself, and the fact that I think that I am following your will does not mean that I am actually doing so. But I believe that the desire to please you does in fact please you. And I hope I have that desire in all that I am doing. I hope that I will never do anything apart from that desire. And I know that if I do this you will lead me by the right road though I may know nothing about it. Therefore will I trust you always though I may seem to be lost and in the shadow of death. I will not fear, for you are ever with me, and you will never leave me to face my perils alone.
–Thomas Merton, from “Thoughts in Solitude”

But next week, if all goes well, some former Buffalonians will rediscover affection for their roots by attending “Buffalo Old Home Week,” a stunt the city last tried in 1907. Organizers hope hundreds of expatriates will be enthralled by the wonders of Buffalo and their good memories, and decide to move home. “It’s so much nicer to love Buffalo from your front porch,” says 47-year-old Judi Griggs, who returned in 2004, after 23 years in Texas and Georgia. She regrets not coming back earlier. “I have two daughters with Southern accents. It’s just wrong.”
–Jeff Zaslow, “You Can Go Home Again: Buffalo Tries to Reclaim Its Native Sons and Daughters”, Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2006